ROBBINS NEST,The New York Extra/TheNYExtra.com
By Lenn Robbins
When we proclaim, “The Rams are going to win Super Bowl LVI and comfortably cover the 4.5 spread,” it’s not a contrived attempt to garner attention. We acknowledge that in the time it takes Joe Burrow hit to Ja’Marr Chase on a 60-yard scoring pass, or confident proclamation can look like a donkey’s butt.
But the Rams are going to win. The Rams are going to cover. We’ll even go as far to say the game will be decided in the fourth quarter when Burrow, who has been harassed like a Daniel Snyder employee, throws his first interception and commits his second turnover of the game.
Why are we so confident? Because we’ve seen this Super Bowl matchup before. In fact, we saw it just a year ago.
A year ago, we had remarkably explosive offense that was tragically flawed by a patchwork offensive line, facing a relentless defense with a harassing front seven. The result in Tampa Bay was the Buccaneers, led by a defense that pressured Patrick Mahomes 29 times, sacked him three times and intercepted him twice, overwhelming the Chiefs, 31-9.
What do we have Sunday? A remarkably explosive offense with a tragically flawed patchwork line going up against a relentless defense with a harassing front seven. If this isn’t Super déjà vu Bowl, what is?
The Chiefs offensive line, decimated by injured, started these five: Two undrafted players (LT Mike Remmers and RT Andrew Wylie), two 7th-round picks (C Austin Reiter and LG Nick Allegretti) and 2011 2nd-round pick, RG Steve Wisnieski, who is on his fifth team. They lost star tackle Eric Fisher, the No.1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, to a torn Achilles tendon in the AFC title game.
Chiefs coaches spent the two weeks leading up the Super Bowl spinning their faith in the O-Line.
“I feel like our guys — however we end up shaking out the lineup — they’ll be ready to go with the amount of work,” said Chiefs offensive line coach Andy Heck. “They’ve all been put in this situation, whether it was in training camp or at some point during the regular season. I would fully expect them to play with good cohesion. These guys have been there and done that.”
We know how that worked out.
Now let’s look at the Bengals O-Line, which, for you analytics groupies, ranked 30th in pass-block win rate by ESPN Next Gen, which seems like blatant ageism but I’m too old to know. The Striped Helmets will start:
Two undrafted players: G Quinton Spain and C Trey Hopkins, a 6th-round pick in Isaiah Prince, a rookie, 2nd-round pick in Jackson Carman, who is dealing with a back injury, and a 1st-round pick Jonah Williams. Just as the Chiefs lost Fisher last season, the Bengals lost Riley Reiff to injury.
Bengals coaches have spent the two weeks leading up the Super Bowl spinning their faith in their O-Line.
“I’ve got a ton of confidence in our guys up front,” offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said with fingers crossed “They’re battle-tested. They’ve played in tough games. They’ve managed. They’ve made mistakes. They’ve given up sacks. They just keep coming back and fighting. That’s all you can ask for at this point in the year.”
At this point, it’s kind of amazing that Burrow is still on his feet. He was sacked 51 times this season – one for every state and the District of Columbia – becoming the only quarterback to be sacked 50 or more times and making it the Super Bowl. The Rams have gotten to the quarterback 50 times. Win this game, get one more sack nd they get to go to D.C..
The Titans, who have the 21st ranked QB pressure rate according to the hipsters at Next Gen, sacked Burrow nine times in the AFC Divisional game. The Rams are ranked 1st in QB pressure rate.
The Rams are going to come after Burrow the way marriages find Pamela Anderson. And they have the personnel to do so. We know about Aaron Donald but in SLB Von Miller and WLB Leonard Floyd, Burrow is smart to retain a personal injury attorney now.
Which is why we wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams become with first Super Bowl champ since the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XII to have co-MVP’s in DT Randy White and DE Harvey Martin. This time it’s Donald and Miller, who has played better as the season has progressed.
Voters wanted to name the entire Dallas defense MVP but the NFL wouldn’t allow it. White and Martin combined to force five turnovers, leading directly to 17 of Dallas’ points in 27-10 victory. This year’s score, in L.A., will be 37-23.
A few other wager wonders:
Chase to gain 4.5 yards rushing – Over.
Total Points, 48.5 – Over.
Defensive MVP – Miller.
Bengals to draft an O-Lineman in 2022 – Yep!
Last Week: 0-2; Best Bets: 01.
Season, 142-134-4; 29-15.
Nails it