When Winning Meets Mediocrity

ROBBINS NEST,The New York Extra/TheNYExtra.com

By Lenn Robbins

Sometimes we must bow down to the Gods of Football and the Lords of Wagering and show our respect. This is that time.

The only salvation from watching those five absolutely horrific Wildcard Weekend games was making it back on the sportsbook. The Lords giveth; the Gods taketh away. We are humbled by last weekend’s 5-0 showing.

As the legendary Crash Davis once said, “a player on a streak has to respect the streak.” I do. I’m humbled. Truly. If the sacrifice comes this weekend in the form of watching some really good playoff football, but not cashing out, so be it.

The goal, of course, is to make it right with both deities.

We were wise enough last week by not taking the Cowboys because they went into their 23-17 loss to the 49ers as the most penalized team in football and that stuff catches up to a team.

Remember the 2008 NCAA Tournament? Memphis went into the championship against Kansas as one of the poorest free throw shooting teams in the field. It wasn’t until Derrick Rose missed 1-of-2 free throws with 2.1 seconds left that the Tigers’ fatal flaw emerged in the Alamadome.

Had Rose made both, Memphis would have had a 64-60 lead and the Tigers would have been looking for a ladder and scissors. Memphis folded like a cheap Elvis impersonator and the Jayhawks claimed a 76-68 OT triumph.

Dallas’s decision to have Dak Prescott run it was the stuff that gets coaches fired. But the Cowboys were lucky to be in the game and were so only because Jimmy Garoppolo suffered one of his trademark brain farts.

We were wise not to take teams with young quarterbacks. Mac Jones (24-of-38 for 232 yards; 2 TDs, 2 Ints) and Jalen Hurts (23-of-43 for 258 yards, 1 TD, 2 Ints.) suffered through their first playoff experiences. We were wise enough not to bet against the best QB of all time (Tom Brady) and three of the best young QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow).

Wildcard Weekend actually was rather predictable although the awful quality of football was not. The Divisional Round is much more unpredictable for one obvious, but no less crucial factor – it features two teams that had a bye (Titans, Packers) facing two teams (Bengals and 49ers) who gained confidence by winning last week. How does one factor that?

The other two games feature two of the NFL’s best “senior” QBs (Brady vs Matt Stafford) and two of the best “junior” QBs (Mahomes vs Allen). Is Stafford finally due? Is Allen ready? Weren’t the Chiefs on the verge of a dynasty two years ago. Weren’t the Bills a preseason darling to make it to Super Bowl LVI?

We humbly, repeat, humbly, try to appease the Lords of Wagering with the hope that the Gods of Football deliver us from awful.

$ TITANS -3.5 over Bengals – Man these Bengals are easy to get behind. When your young head coach (Zac Taylor) personally delivers a game ball to a local bar and you have what is shaping up to be the most thrilling QB-WR duo of the next 10 years (Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase), that’s some good mojo.

Tennessee’s success is based on much more “old-school” mojo. Whether or not Derrick Henry plays (it seems like he will) the Titans are going to try to own the trenches. They have a Top 5 rushing offense (141.4 yards per game) and came a fraction away from having the best run defense (84.6) behind the Ravens (84.5). That’s how you win playoff games.

PACKERS -6 over 49ers – The 49ers physical play down the stretch have made them a chic pick. And Deebo Samuel is a Swiss Army killer, a WR who runs like a RB, often lines up as RB, but also has completed 1-of-2 passes for 16 yards and a score. San Fran plays like a team whose home field is Lambeau.

 The Packers have gotten a lot of attention because of their outlier of a QB. Statistically, a case can be made that Aaron Rodgers (449 TDS/93 Ints!) is the best to ever play QB. He’s also the only QB this season to host Jeopardy, get engaged, break a toe, grow out his hair and be mistaken for a young Jeff Bridges and, oh yeah, that COVID-19 vaccination thing. What was THAT?!

This is a case of KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid. Rodgers is one of the greatest. Jimmy G can look really good for 55 minutes and blow it all up in a nanosecond. Rodgers doesn’t make mistakes. Jimmy G does.

$ RAMS +3 over Buccaneers – This is wagering heresy, right? Picking against the GOAT? Yes, we are. The Rams have the type of interior forces in Aaron Donald and A’Shawn Robinson that can push Brady out of his comfort spots. They have a lockdown corner (Patrick Ramsey) who can matchup on Mike Evans.

Brady had two-fifths of his O-Line (T Tristan Wirfs, ankle; C Ryan Jensen, ankle) sat out Wednesday’s practice. Jensen is trending up; Wirfs down. RB Ronald Jones (ankle) is still in a boot. RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) got on the practice field Thursday giving him a chance of being activated for Sunday’s game. And Brady’s lost WRs Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. If there’s a sick bay on the Buccaneer’s 100-foot pirate ship, it’s overrun.

But this is about Stafford, who escaped Detroit purgatory and has a chance to win a ring. He doesn’t have to beat the Bucs but he can’t beat the Rams. Stafford and rookie Trevor Lawrence tied for the league lead by throwing 17 interceptions apiece. This is Stafford’s 13^th season. He needs to play like a vet, not a rookie.

Bills +1.5 at CHIEFS – The notion that the Chiefs are a pinball game on offense with the wizard known as Patrick Mahomes flicking his supple wrist is flawed. KC rushed for 114.5 yards per game, more than playoff teams Green Bay (111.8), Cincy (101.4), Rams (101.3), Tampa Bay (98.8) and Pittsburgh (91.1).

The Bills have the best defense in the NFL but they can be worn down up the gut and have allowed 108.6 yards rushing which is good but not great. Five other playoff teams are better against the run. This is Key 1 – can the Bills defense make the Chiefs one-dimensional? Key 2 – Limit Mahomes. Teams have done that on occasion this season by playing the umbrella defense.

Buffalo the AFC’s version of the 49ers/Rams. Yes, Mahomes and Allen will make plays that QBs simply didn’t even attempt five years ago. But with all the talk about these two QBs and the rules that favor the forward pass, when all else is equal, we’ll take defense.

Home team in CAPS

$ Best bets

Last Week: 5-0; Best Bets: 1-0.

Season, 141-129-4; 28-14.